Falaqaynta Iyo Lafa-Gurka Miisaaniyadda 2015-Ka.. W/Q: Yaasiin Calase- Senior Lecturer: University of Hargeisa
Waxa dhawaanahan wasiirka wasaaradda maliyaddu Mudane Cabdicaiis Maxamed Samaale caadaystay in u warbaahinta kaga faano korodhka misaaniyadda qaranka isago leh.“Waxaan kasoo qaadnay misaaniyadda 47 Million oo waxaanu keenay 251 Million”. Taas oo aan ahay mar iyo labbo toona. Hadaba korodhkasi waa mid aan waxba ka jirin oo laga been abuurtay.!!
Hadaba waxa aanku eegi doona maqaalkan:-Waa maxay misaaniyad? Koradhka misaaniyadu halku kayimid?, Ma dhabaa in misaanniyadu korodhay inta uu sheegayo Wasiir Samaale?, Misaaniyadda dhabta ah ee 2015 waa immisa?
Intaanan u gudo galin jawaabaha su’aalahan waxaan doonay in aan sawir guud idinka siiyo misaanayadda iyo doorka ay ku leedahay kobcinta dhaqaalah iyo horimarinta nolosha qofka muwadadinka.
Misaaniyaddu maaha oo kaliya Odoroska Dakhli iyo Kharash ee dawaladda. ee waxa weeye siyaasad dhaqaale oo lagu horimariyo dhaqaalaha. Taas oo sheegaysa cashuur intee leeg ayaa laga qadayaa badeecadaha iyo shaqaalaha?.Iyo sidee loo kharash garaynaya dakhliga soo gala dawladda?Si loo kobciyo dhaqaalah dalka iyo nolosha muwadiniinta cashuurta bixisay.
Waana habka ay dawladuhu kusoo faro galiyaan dhaqaalaha si kor loogu qaado marka uu suuqa ku guul daraysto in uu isa saxo.loona baahdo in ay dawladu ku samayso faragalinta toos ah xaalada dhaqaalaha ee dalka.(Government intervention) iyadoo isticmaalaysa siyaasada dhaqaale ee loo yaqaan “siyaasada maaliyadda” (Fiscal Policy). Ama siyaasada lacagta (Monetary Policy)
Waxaa jirta aragti dhaqaale oo odhanaysa. Waa in cashuurta tooska ahee laga qaado dabaqada shaqaalaha (Income Tax), Waain hoos loodhiga si kor loogu qaado dakhliga qofka shaqaala ha. (Disposable Personal Income),),Tusaale ahaan, hadii aad mushahaar u qadato$100 oo cashuur dawladdu kaa qaado25% dakhligaaga dhabta ahi waa$75 ($100-25).Waxaana loo yaqaan dakhliga dhabta ah ee cashuurta kadib.“DI” (Disposable Income),
Hadaba si kor loogu qaado dakhliga qofka shaqalaha ah waa in dowladdu cashuurta ay ka dhinta dabaqada shaqaalaha (Consumers/HouseHold). Tusaale ahaan hadii mushaaharkaga oo ah $100 ay dawladdu cashuurta hoos u dhigto oo ay kaaqado5% cashuur ah,dakhligaagi waxa kor u kacay 20% waxaanu noqday $95 ($100-$5)
Ujeedaduna waxaa weeye in ay dawladdu cariso dhaqaalah (Government stimulus)oo kor looqado awooda wax iibsi ee dadka iyo in korloogu qaado wadarta dalabka dhaqaalaha (Aggregate Demand) sida uu qabo (Keynesian Economics)
Dhanka kale waa in dawladdu cashuurta ku kordhisa shirkaddaha waa weyn ama ay kasoo qaadato lacagta xaqa loogu leeyahay sida cashuurta macashal macaashka ah (Corporate Profit Tax) si ay dawladdu u hesho dakhli ku filan. Waa hadii aanay lacag soo daynsan karin sida dawladdena oo kale.
Hadaba qaladka waa wayn ee misaaniyadda 2015-ka waxaa kamid ah in shaqaalaha dawlada oo ah shaqaalaha ugu mushahaarka yar, inhaadana laga qaadayo cashuurta ugu badan marka labarbar dhigo shirkadaha waa wayne iyo shaqaalaha rayidka ah cashuurta laga qaaqayo:Tusaale ahaan
Sida ka muuqata shaxda hoose shaqaalaha dawladdu waxa ay bixinayaan cashuur mushahaareed dhan $5,746,837Million.Oo ah 3.19% dakhliga guud ee misaaniyadda dawlada dhexe. Halka shirkadaha waa weyn ay bixin doonaan cashuurta macaashal macaashka ah (Corporate Profit tax) cashur dhan $ 2,055.140 Million oo noqonaysa 1.14%.
| S/N | Cashuuraha Dakhliga | SLSH | USD $ | Percentage % |
| 1 | Cash/M/M Shaqaalaha Dawladda | 34,481,021,799 | $5,746,837 | 3.19% |
|
2 |
Cash/M/M shaqaalaha Rayidka ah | 9,500,000,000 | $1,583,333 | 0.88% |
| 3 | Cash/M/M Ganacsiga | 12,330,839,468 | $2,055,140 | 1.14% |
| 4 | TOTAL | 56,311,862,267 | 9,385,310 | 5.23% |
Source: Budget 2015
Warbixin u daabacay Bangiga Aduunku 2014. (World Bank-2014) Ayaa lagu sheegay in cashuurta macashal macaashka ah (Corporate profit tax) ee ku waajibtay shirkadaha waa wayn ee dalka sida Shirkadaha xawaladaha, isgaadhsiinta, diyaradaha, hudheeladda, dhismayaasha iyo ganacsatada waa weyn ee wax soo dajisa ama dhoofisa in laga qaado oo kaliya 10%cashuurta ku waa jibtay. Oo aan laga qaadin 90% cashuurti xaqa loogu leeyahay sabaabo laxiidhiidha awoodaradda dawladda iyo fahan daro ka haysata aqoonta dhaqaalaha ee aynu kor kusoo sheegnay!.
- Korodhka Asaraarka ah ee Odoroska Miisaniyadda 2015-ka
Sida ku xusan faah faahintaodoroska miisaaniyadda sanadka 2015 waxaa lagu odorosay kharashka Dawladda Dhexe, Hayaddaha Madaxa Banaan, Dawladdaha Hoose iyo Sanduuqa Horimarinta Somaliland (SDF),kharash dhan1,507,524,137,219SL shilling.
| S/NO | Hay’ada | SLSH | USD $ | Samaale Rate | $ US Dollar |
| 1. | Dawladda Dhexe | 1,080,000,000,000 | $1 | SLsh 6,000 | $180,000,000 |
| 2. | Hayadaha Madaxa Banaan | 176,846,392,352 | $1 | SLsh 6,000 | $29,474,399 |
| 3. | Dawladdaha Hoose | 164,877,744,867 | $1 | SLsh 6,000 | $27,479,624 |
| 4. | Sanduuqa Horimarinta Somaliland SDF) | 85,800,000,000 | 1$ | SLsh 6,000 | $14,300,000 |
| Isugeyn | 1,507,524,137,219 | 1$ | SLsh 6,000 | $251,254,023 |
Source: Budget 2015 with Samaale Rate $1=SLSH 6,000
Miisaaniyadda dhabta ah oo aanay ku jirin Lacagta Sanduuqa Horimarinta Somaliland SDF
| S/NO | Hayada | SLSH | USD $ | Samaale Rate | $ US Dollar |
| 1. | Dawladda Dhexe | 1,080,000,000,000 | $1 | SLsh 7,300 | $147,945,205 |
| 2. | Hayadaha Madaxa Banaan | 176,846,392,352 | $1 | SLsh 7,300 | $25,225,533 |
| 3. | Dawladdaha Hoose | 164,877,744,867 | $1 | SLsh 7,300 | $22,585,992 |
| Isugeyn | 1,421,724,137,219 | 1$ | SLsh 7,300 | $194,756,730 |
Source Budget 2015 with market Rate $1 =SLSHI 7,300 Oo anay ku jirin SDF
Been abuurka ugu wayn ee Miisaaniyadda 2015-ka waa iyaddoo laga been abuuray sixirka sarifka suuqa ee lacagaha qalaad lagu sarifo. Sida qiimaha Dollarka oo lagu sarifayo hadda sixirka sarifka suuqa($1 = 7,300 shilling) laguna sheegay in uu yahay ($1 = 6,000 shilling).Waana sida ay ku xisaabsan tahay isku badalka sarifka miisaaniyadda 2015-ka.Waana halka uu kasoo baxay faraqa korodhka beenta ah oo dhan 18% in ay korodho miisaniyaddu marka Dollar lagu sheegayo. Waxaana loo cugsaday been aburkaas “Samaale Rate”
Buun buuninta miisaaniyadda 2015-ka waxaa kale oo kamid ah kharash Sanduuuqa Horimarinta Somaliland (SDF) oo dhan $14,300,000, kuna xisaabsan miisaaniyada 2015.Mana ahayn dakhli soo galay qasanada dawladda.Sida daradeed maaha in lagu xisaabiyo miisaaniyadda lacagaha deeqaha calamiga ah ee aan qasnada dawladda toos ugu soo dhicin ee ay fulinayaan ama maamulayaan hayado caalami ihi.Waana halka labaad ee korodhka miisaaniyadda 2015 kayimid.Isku darka labadaa qalad waxaa ay miisaaniyadda dhabta ah ku darayaan $56,497,293 Million oo noqonaya 29% korodh ah oo aan jirin.Miisaaniyadda dhabta ah ee qasnadda dawladda ku soo xarootay waa $194,756,730 Millions
Waxaad shaxdan hoose aad ku arkaysa miisaniyadda been abuurka ah iyo misaaniyadda dhabta ah ee 2015-kq farqiga u dhaxeeya inta uu leegyahay.
| Qiimaha Sarifka | USD $ | Somaliland shilling | Budget2015
SL-Shillings |
Budget 2015
US Dollars |
| Miisaaniyada Bugta ah | $1 | 6,000 | 1,507,524,137,219 | 251,254,023 Million |
| Miisaaniyadda Dhabta ah | $1 | 7,300 | 1,421,724,137,219 | $194,756,730 Million |
| FARAQA 29.01% | 85,800,000,000 | $56,497,293 Million |
Source: Primary Analysis
Faraqa u dhaxeyay misaaniyadda dhabta ah iyo misaaniyadda been abuurka ah waxa uu dhanyahay$56,497,293 Million. Oo noqonaysa 29% in ay korodhay misaaniyadu.Waana been abuurkii ugu xuma ee ay dawladdi samayso.
Been abuurkani kuma koobna oo kaliya miisaaniyadda sanadkan 2015 ee miisaaniyaddi 2014 iyadana waxaa lagu xisaabiyay safirka been abuurka ah ee Samaale Rate.
DAABACADA LACAGTA CUSUB
- Qaladka labaad ee ugu wayn ee ka muuqada Misaaniyadda 2015-ka waa dakhliga dawladdda oo ay ka muuqato lacagta cusub ee lasoo dabacaayo. Taas oo aan ahayn dakhli usoo xarooday ama u soo kordhay dawladda dhexe.Lacag soo dabiciduna waa shaqadda Bangida Dhexe ee mahaa shaqada wasaaradda maliyadda.Maamulka iyo lasocdka lacagta waxaa iska leh bangiga dhexe (Monetary Policy), halkadawladda dhexe ka maamushosiyaasada kharashka lacagta (Fiscal Policy) waana qalad xaga hanaanka lacagta ah oo uu gacanta lagalay wasiirka aan aqoonta u lahayn arimaha dhaqaalaha iyo maamulka maliyadda.Lacagta sucub ee lasoo dabacaya waxaa ay dhib iyo dhiig bax dhaqaale ku tahay dhaqaalaha dalka, oo aad moodo in ay dawladdani miciin satay lacag soo dabicid sanadwalba ah taasin waata keentay in lacagta SL Shilling ay qiimo beesho sanadba sanadka kadambeeye.Sidoo kalana uu dhaco sixir barar baah san oo dhibaateya dadka danyarta. Waana wax lagu yaqaan dawladaha fashilmay in ay soo dabacaan lacag (Paper money) sanad walba marka waxaan odhan karna dawladani waxa ay ku fashilanta siyaasada dhaqaale ee dalka waxaanay gaysiin doonta in dhaqaalo xumo aan abid hore loo arag ka dhacao Somaliland. Waa hadii aan lag hor tagin lacagta sucub ee Samaale soo dabacanayo sanad walba ee aan xeer iyo sharci loo maray anuu jirin.
LACAGAHADEEQAHA CAALAMIGA AH EE AAN KUJIRN DHAKHLIGA DAWLADDA
- Qaladka Saddexaad waxaa weeye in lacagaha deeqaha calamiga ah ee aanay dawladda dhexe maamulin ama aan qasnadda dawladda dhexe ku soo dhicin in ay ka muuqato miisaniyadda qaranka sida Sanduuqa Hormarinta Somaliland (SDF) oo ka muuqda oo kaliya dhinaca dakhliga oo aan dhanka kharashka aan ka muuqan ama aan lagu xusin miisaaniyada. Sababta oo ah Maah lacag ay maamulayso Dawladdu ee waa lacag ay maamulayso Hayada Mott MacDonald: ee fulinaysa Mashaaricda wax qabad ee Sanduq Horimarint Somaliland (SDF)Taasina waxa weeye sheegasho been ah oo lagu darsaday miisaaniyadda 2015. Waana korodhka beenta ahi meelaha uu kayimid.
QASNADDA SAMAALE!!
- Qaladdka Afraad ee miisaniyadda 2015-ka waxaa weeye wax loogu yeedhay “Qasnada Guud ee Qaranka” (Qasnadda Samaale) Waana qasnadda loo qoondeeyay lacagta ugu badan ee miisaaniyadda 2015-ka, oo dhan $39,375,473 Million. Noqonaysana89%. Waxaana abuuray Wasiirka Maliyadda Samaale sanadku marku ahaa 2012-kii isagana maamula. Sharciyad ay ku dhisantahayna majirto. Waxaana ay ku magacaaban tahay horimarinta iyo kharashaadka madaxweynaha iyo ku xigeenkiisa iyo 2% horimarinta goboladda bari. Sidoo kale waa meesha lagu sheegay kharashka soo dabicida iyo rarida lacagta cusub oo lagu duudsiyay awoodii sharci ee Bangiga dhexe. Qasnadda oo aan ugu yeedhay“Qasnadda Samaale” ayaa ah meesha ugu weyn ee lagu lunsado lacagta qaranka, madama aanay jirin cid isaga la’og oo lamaamusha haday noqoto waxaa lagasaarayo iyo waxaa lagu qabanaayo toona waana Qasanad siisay Awood dheerad ah oo aanu lahayn inuu ku yeesho golaha wasiiradda.
KORODHKA KHARASHKA DAWLADDA EE MIISAANIYADDA 2015
Sida ka muuqata sawirka kore waxay miisaaniyadda dawladda dhexe ku baxaysaa 84%Kharashka Shaqaalaha iyo Adeega iyo Alaabta Xafiiska (Office stationary) taasi waxa ay ku tusaysa in korodhka miisaaniyadddu aanu wax horimar ah oo lataban kara kamuuqan oo ay tahay uun kharashkii dawladda oo aad u kordhay (Increasing government spending) . Taasina maaha wax lagu faani karo ee waa kharash aan loo meel dayin oo ku ah dadka iyo dalka dhiig bax dhaqaale.
Lasoco Qaybo kale
Mr. Yaasiin Calase
Senior Lecturer:
University of Hargeisa
E-mail: calase21@hotmail.com
